2026 Heavy Jet Residual Values: Finding the Floor for G650, Global, and Falcon

A floor is forming in 2026 heavy jet values. Inventories have normalised from the post‑pandemic extremes, OEM backlogs remain sticky, and higher new‑build prices are supporting used pricing. The headline: late‑model, long‑range aircraft now trade in a tighter band with condition and programme status driving more of the spread than macro sentiment.

The quick take: why residuals are firming

After the 2022–2024 correction, three forces are stabilising values across ultra‑long‑range jets:

• New aircraft pricing and lead times: OEM list and equipped prices rose materially from 2021 levels, and order books for flagship programmes are still multi‑year. That lifts the used floor when the time value of delivery matters (General Dynamics 2025 Form 10‑K; Bombardier 2025 Annual Report; Dassault Aviation 2025 URD).
• Supply returned, but not to pre‑COVID excess: Heavy‑jet inventory has settled near mid‑cycle rather than overshooting. Public listing services show 5–8% of the in‑service fleet for sale in early 2026 versus ~2% in 2022 and ~10% in 2016 (AMSTAT/JetNet, market summaries, H1‑2026).
• Cost visibility has improved: Fuel, parts, and MRO slots remain expensive, but the step‑changes of 2022–2023 have moderated. Buyers can price upcoming inspections with more confidence, and sellers with fresh maintenance have negotiating leverage (MRO network rate cards and OEM service bulletins, 2025–2026).

Method and definitions

Residual percentages below are directional benchmarks, derived from 2025–2026 asking/trading ranges, typical original equipped prices, and standard utilisation profiles. Unless noted, residual is shown as the value of a representative aircraft as a percentage of its original equipped new price at 5 and 10 years from delivery, assuming:

• Average annual utilisation 350–450 hours
• Engines/APU on manufacturer‑recognised hourly programmes where common
• No major inspection due within 12 months
• Modern Ka/Ku connectivity (or Viasat LEO plan where applicable) for cabin‑critical models
• Neutral cosmetics and no unusual damage history

Sources for pricing context include Aircraft Bluebook Winter 2025/26, Vref Q1‑2026 directional values, and public listing aggregates (AMSTAT/JetNet) triangulated against transaction observations.

Residual benchmarks: the 2026 picture

Five‑ and ten‑year residuals by model

Model	5‑year residual (2026 benchmark)	10‑year residual (2026 benchmark)	Notes driving variance
Gulfstream G650ER	78–85%	58–65%	Cult following, strong global support; ER premium intact
Gulfstream G650 (non‑ER)	70–75%	50–57%	Slight discount to ER widens on longer hauls
Gulfstream G550	60–68%	38–48%	Capability strong; values hinge on inspections and programmes
Bombardier Global 7500	85–92%	65–72%	Backlog and step‑up pricing underpin near‑new values
Bombardier Global 6000	62–70%	40–50%	6500 shadow; big checks and connectivity drive spread
Dassault Falcon 8X	75–82%	55–62%	Efficient DOC, Dassault support, lower noise footprint
Dassault Falcon 7X	65–72%	45–55%	Well‑proven; inspection status and EASy III matter

Interpretation: the “residual ladder” in 2026 rewards late‑model range leaders (Global 7500, G650ER) and efficient, Stage 5‑compliant types (Falcon 8X). Legacy flagships (G550, Global 6000, 7X) bifurcate based on maintenance and cabin spec rather than macro tone.

Supply and demand snapshot (H1‑2026)

The for‑sale share of the operating fleet is a clean barometer of residual risk. Early‑2026 snapshots show:

• Global 7500: ~2–3% for sale, often with ask prices close to replacement cost less delivery premium (Bombardier 2025 AR; AMSTAT H1‑2026).
• G650ER: ~4–6% for sale, with newer ERs attracting international buyers prioritising ETOPS/range.
• Falcon 8X: ~5–6% for sale; demand favours quiet airports and European operations.
• G550: ~8–10% for sale; age dispersion and inspection pipelines widen pricing.
• Global 6000: ~9–11% for sale; well‑spec’d, inspection‑current aircraft trade quickly.
• Falcon 7X: ~7–9% for sale; premium for EASy III, FANS/CPDLC, and fresh C‑check.

By contrast, 2022 saw <3% for sale across many heavy segments, while 2016‑2017 saw double‑digit percentages. The 2026 setting is mid‑cycle, which prevents capitulation but enforces discipline on stale listings.

Model‑by‑model: pricing, costs, and what is clearing

Gulfstream G650/G650ER

• 2025–2026 asking ranges (illustrative):
  • G650ER 2018–2020: USD 52–62m; 2015–2017: USD 46–54m
  • G650 (non‑ER) 2014–2016: USD 38–45m; late 2016–2017: USD 42–48m
  • Spread drivers: ER premium (USD 4–8m), RRCC engine/APU coverage, Ka‑band, cabin refresh, and proximity to 96/192‑month events (Vref Q1‑2026; public listings H1‑2026).
• Direct hourly costs (variable, fuel at USD 4.50/USG):
  • G650ER: ~USD 7,800–8,800/hour; add USD 1,200–1,600/hour for engine/APU programmes
  • G650: ~USD 7,400–8,400/hour; similar programme loads
• Maintenance exposures commonly priced in:
  • 96‑month inspection: ~USD 1.8–2.5m depending on scope and findings
  • 192‑month/landing gear overhaul: ~USD 1.2–1.8m
  • Cabin/cockpit upgrades (Ka‑band, router/VVIP satcom): USD 0.6–1.2m

Context: General Dynamics’ 2025 disclosures signal multi‑year Gulfstream backlogs for the G700 with the G650ER line still supported, constraining near‑term substitution and supporting ER values (General Dynamics 2025 10‑K). The floor looks durable provided inspection risk is priced in.

Pricing call (2026):

• Late‑model G650ERs are fairly priced to slightly rich when near‑term maintenance is light. Early‑serial, high‑time ERs without programmes can still be 5–8% too high relative to where they clear.
• Non‑ER 650s with fresh 96‑month events and Ka‑band remain underappreciated versus utility; bespoke, well‑kept examples have limited downside from here.

Gulfstream G550

• 2025–2026 asking ranges:
  • 2016–2020 late‑builds: USD 25–30m
  • 2010–2014: USD 17–24m; 2006–2009: USD 13–18m
• Direct hourly costs: ~USD 6,700–7,800/hour variable; add ~USD 1,000–1,400/hour for engine/APU programmes
• Maintenance exposures:
  • 96‑/192‑month package: USD 1.0–1.8m
  • Landing gear OH: USD 0.8–1.2m
  • Avionics sustainment (display units, FMS upgrades): USD 0.2–0.5m as parts availability tightens

The G550 remains a capability bargain with intercontinental range and mature support. That said, buyers are ruthless about upcoming events. A 12‑ to 24‑month inspection runway is now commonly discounted into the offer. Well‑pedigreed aircraft with fresh work and engines on RRCC hold value; off‑programme or gear‑due examples face steeper negotiation.

Pricing call (2026):

• Market is two‑tiered. Clean, late‑build 550s are fairly priced. Older, inspection‑heavy examples still appear 5–10% high relative to the costs buyers will incur inside 24 months.

Bombardier Global 7500

• 2025–2026 asking ranges:
  • 2019–2021: USD 72–82m (spec‑dependent); 2022–2024 often USD 78–88m
  • New replacement cost: generally north of USD 90m equipped in 2026 depending on options (Bombardier 2025 AR, pricing commentary)
• Direct hourly costs: ~USD 8,200–9,400/hour variable; engine/APU/hardware programmes add ~USD 1,200–1,600/hour
• Maintenance context:
  • Fleet age keeps most hulls pre‑heavy‑check; warranty roll‑offs and Smart Parts status influence near‑term cost certainty
  • Early cabin/connectivity retrofits (Viasat, Ka‑band redundancy) carry USD 0.6–1.0m implications when absent

Backlog is doing heavy lifting here. Bombardier guided to sustained Global 7500 output with multi‑year sold positions (Bombardier 2025 AR; investor commentary), and corporate demand for true 7,500‑nm capability supports near‑new pricing. Trades near replacement cost are not anomalies when delivery time is money.

Pricing call (2026):

• Values are rich but defensible near term. The risk is later‑cycle: as G700/G800 deliveries ramp and Bombardier adds capacity, premiums should normalise. For 12–24 months, the floor appears solid, with 5‑year residuals in the high‑80s plausible.

Bombardier Global 6000

• 2025–2026 asking ranges:
  • 2014–2016: USD 24–30m (programme status/inspections drive spread)
  • 2011–2013: USD 19–25m
• Direct hourly costs: ~USD 7,200–8,400/hour variable; add ~USD 1,000–1,400/hour for programmes
• Maintenance exposures:
  • 120‑month (8C) heavy: USD 2.5–4.0m depending on findings and cabin work
  • Landing gear OH: USD 1.0–1.5m
  • Ka‑band install: USD 0.6–0.9m; EASA cabin safety SBs if pending: USD 0.1–0.2m

The Global 6000 lives in the 6500’s shadow but can screen cheap on a capability‑per‑dollar basis, with BR710 support deep and global. The trap is inspection timing. A 6000 priced attractively but inside 18 months of an 8C/gear event will be repriced by the first sophisticated buyer who bids.

Pricing call (2026):

• Under‑priced when: 8C/gear are fresh, engines/APU on programme, Ka‑band fitted, and no corrosion/water ingress legacy issues. Over‑priced when these are absent. The spread between those two states can be USD 5–7m.

Dassault Falcon 8X

• 2025–2026 asking ranges:
  • 2018–2021: USD 42–52m; 2016–2017 early builds: USD 38–45m
• Direct hourly costs: ~USD 5,800–6,800/hour variable; add ~USD 900–1,200/hour for programmes
• Maintenance exposures:
  • 96/144‑month packages: USD 1.2–1.9m
  • Gear OH: USD 0.8–1.2m
  • Cabin/connectivity updates where needed: USD 0.5–0.8m

Dassault’s steady production cadence and support reputation underpin values. The 8X plays well in Europe (noise and runway performance), and its DOC advantage over larger twins is salient when fuel remains structurally pricey. Dassault’s 2025 disclosures show a balanced backlog into the 10X era without overhang on 8X support (Dassault Aviation 2025 URD).

Pricing call (2026):

• Fairly priced to slightly under‑appreciated relative to capability and DOC. Clean, European‑spec 8Xs with fresh inspections are bid quickly.

Dassault Falcon 7X

• 2025–2026 asking ranges:
  • 2012–2015: USD 20–26m; 2008–2011: USD 16–22m
• Direct hourly costs: ~USD 5,600–6,600/hour variable; add ~USD 900–1,200/hour for programmes
• Maintenance exposures:
  • Major C‑check (8–10 years): USD 1.3–2.0m
  • Gear OH: USD 0.7–1.1m
  • EASy III, FANS/CPDLC, LPV/SB compliance packages (if pending): USD 0.2–0.5m

The 7X is a proven global platform with strong runway performance. Buyers pay up for EASy III avionics, EASA/FAA datalink compliance, and fresh structural checks. Aircraft without these items are long‑tail listings.

Pricing call (2026):

• Often under‑priced when fully current on inspections and avionics. Over‑priced when sellers ignore the capitalised cost of bringing a mid‑life 7X fully up to contemporary mission and regulatory standards.

Where the floor comes from: order books, pricing power, and substitution limits

• OEM backlogs: Bombardier’s disclosures indicate a multi‑year Global 7500 backlog with a material book‑to‑bill that kept the programme sold well into 2027 at 2025 pricing (Bombardier 2025 AR). General Dynamics referenced a healthy Gulfstream backlog, with G700 slots tight and G800 certification/deliveries staged, limiting immediate substitution into new aircraft (General Dynamics 2025 10‑K and earnings commentary). Dassault reported balanced intake and continued support emphasis for the 8X while the 10X draws demand (Dassault Aviation 2025 URD).
• New build pricing: Across OEMs, 2021–2026 cumulative price increases plus specification creep have raised replacement costs. For buyers who value calendar delivery, a year‑one depreciation on a new heavy jet is no longer a foregone conclusion—particularly on the 7500 and latest G650ERs.
• Moderated (not excessive) used supply: With 5–8% of fleets for sale in early 2026, we are neither starved nor saturated. That dampens forced‑sale dynamics and allows condition and pedigree to set the clearing price. Listings without maintenance clarity are being filtered out by buyers faster than in 2023.

Comparison: what you pay to fly and to hold

Below, a practical comparison of current ownership economics. Ranges reflect typical 2026 inputs, with fuel at USD 4.50/USG and mainstream programme participation.

Model	Typical 2025–26 ask (mid‑serial)	Variable $/hour (fuel at $4.50)	Engine/APU programmes $/hour	Next heavy event (common)	Event cost (USD)
G650ER (2016–2018)	$48–58m	$7,800–8,800	$1,200–1,600	96/192‑month, gear	$1.8–2.5m / $1.2–1.8m
G650 (2014–2016)	$38–45m	$7,400–8,400	$1,200–1,600	96‑month	$1.8–2.3m
G550 (2012–2016)	$20–28m	$6,700–7,800	$1,000–1,400	96/192‑month, gear	$1.0–1.8m / $0.8–1.2m
Global 7500 (2019–2021)	$72–82m	$8,200–9,400	$1,200–1,600	96–120‑month (future)	$2.0–3.0m (forecast)
Global 6000 (2013–2015)	$22–28m	$7,200–8,400	$1,000–1,400	120‑month 8C, gear	$2.5–4.0m / $1.0–1.5m
Falcon 8X (2017–2019)	$42–50m	$5,800–6,800	$900–1,200	96/144‑month, gear	$1.2–1.9m / $0.8–1.2m
Falcon 7X (2012–2014)	$20–26m	$5,600–6,600	$900–1,200	C‑check, gear	$1.3–2.0m / $0.7–1.1m

Observations:

• DOC deltas are material: Falcon 7X/8X save USD 1,500–2,500/hour versus Global/Gulfstream twins on fuel and reserves at 2026 prices.
• Maintenance timing dictates real acquisition cost: an apparently cheaper Global 6000 with 8C due can be USD 3–5m more expensive on a whole‑life basis than a clean sistership.
• Programmes remain an equity proxy: off‑programme engines introduce balance‑sheet risk and time‑to‑cash if a core or LLP event emerges in the hold period.

Which models are mis‑priced today?

Over‑priced (relative to likely clearing levels):

• Early‑serial G650ERs without programmes or with 192‑month/gear events inside 24 months when asks ignore USD 2–3m of near‑term capex.
• Older Global 6000s (2011–2013) without Ka‑band and with 8C/gear due, yet priced off post‑inspection comparables.

Under‑priced (relative to capability and hold‑period risk):

• G650 (non‑ER) with fresh 96‑month events, Ka‑band, and neutral cosmetics. The ER premium is justified for Pacific stretches, but many corporate profiles don’t need it.
• Falcon 7X with EASy III, FANS/CPDLC, fresh C‑check, and documented corrosion remediation. DOC and runway flexibility carry real option value.
• Select Falcon 8X examples in European registry with recent inspections—bid/ask gaps remain narrower than their DOC advantage would suggest.

Fairly priced (with narrow spread):

• Global 7500 near‑new, especially where delivery timing substitutes for a new slot. The relative premium is principally a backlog story in 2026.
• Late‑build G550s on full programmes with fresh inspections—spreads are narrowing around clean comps.

Why heavy‑jet residuals didn’t crack further in 2025

• Replacement cost parity: Cumulative inflation in materials, labour, and avionics since 2021 has moved the goalposts. Buyers benchmarking to 2019 price memory found fewer “deals” once maintenance and programme costs were added back (OEM and MRO cost disclosures, 2025–2026).
• Demand composition: The post‑pandemic charter‑to‑owner pathway cooled, but corporate flight departments re‑engaged. Their acquisition committees are more price‑sensitive, yet also less likely to chase distressed assets that jeopardise dispatch reliability.
• Financing and rates: Base rates plateaued rather than spiking further in 2025. Lenders re‑opened to pedigreed hulls with predictable remarketing outcomes, which aided residual confidence for clean aircraft.

What this means for buyers in 2026

• Pay for recency of maintenance; it’s cheaper than you think: In current labour markets, buying post‑inspection is typically more cost‑effective than executing the same work shortly after purchase, particularly for 96/120/192‑month packages.
• Programme status is binary for liquidity: Engines/APU on recognised programmes shorten time‑to‑cash on exit. Off‑programme discounts that look attractive on entry can reverse in a softening tape.
• Spec discipline pays: Ka‑band/Viasat, modern cabin management, and refreshed soft goods now clear faster and closer to ask. Retrofits are available but at 2026 labour rates.
• Don’t underwrite on list price alone: Near‑new Global 7500s and late G650ERs sit near replacement cost for rational reasons (lead time, performance). The appropriate buy discipline is to underwrite hold‑period cash cost and exit window rather than to anchor on pre‑2020 discount heuristics.
• Be realistic on depreciation: From this floor, base‑case forward curves are flat to low single‑digit annual declines on clean, late‑model heavy jets; mid‑life legacy flagships remain more condition‑driven.

Forward curves: a practical guide

• Global 7500: Flat to down 1–2%/yr through 2027, then normalises as more new capacity enters and substitution options widen (G700/G800 maturity).
• G650ER: Flat in 2026; then 1–3%/yr as G800 enters fleets and as very early ERs age into heavy events.
• Falcon 8X: Flat to down ~1%/yr; DOC advantage buffers depreciation while 10X positioning evolves.
• G550/Global 6000/7X: Condition‑led. Clean, programme‑covered hulls down 2–4%/yr; inspection‑due hulls can gap wider if MRO labour remains tight.

Residuals in practice: five‑ and ten‑year look‑through examples

Two stylised cases to illustrate the current floor dynamics:

• 2018 G650ER with RRCC/APU MSP, Ka‑band, fresh 96‑month in 2026, 3,200 hours: Entry USD 55m. Hold to 2029 with 400 hours/year, no major events due. Base‑case exit USD 49–51m (down 1–2%/yr), net of light cabin refresh. Residual vs original equipped price sits ~60–62% at 10 years, which aligns with the benchmark table.
• 2014 Global 6000 with 8C/gear done in 2025, Ka‑band, 4,200 hours: Entry USD 26m. Hold to 2029, budget USD 1.2m in cumulative unscheduled/reserve spend and cabin touch‑ups. Base‑case exit USD 21–22.5m (down ~3%/yr), 10‑year residual ~45–48% versus original equipped price.

These outcomes are within observed 2025–2026 bid/ask dynamics (Vref Q1‑2026; Bluebook Winter 2025/26; brokered transaction ranges) and assume no exogenous shock.

Risks to the view

• Certification cadence surprises: If G800 and G700 deliveries exceed expectations materially, the near‑new premium on the 7500 and late G650ER could normalise faster.
• Macro shock: A sharp demand contraction in North America or a material reversal in corporate travel policy would elongate days‑on‑market in the legacy flagship segment first (G550/6000/7X).
• MRO capacity: If labour tightness worsens, the value of freshly inspected aircraft rises and the discount on inspection‑due hulls widens further.

Where I see this going

Through 2026, heavy‑jet residuals look range‑bound with a slight positive bias for late‑model, high‑spec aircraft. The floor is being set by multi‑year OEM backlogs, elevated replacement costs, and rational inventory. By 2027–2028, as new‑programme deliveries normalise, expect a gradual reversion toward historical depreciation curves, with condition and programme status continuing to separate winners from the rest.

In short: capital will be rewarded for buying maintenance, programmes, and time. That is the quiet edge in this part of the cycle.

Sources referenced: General Dynamics (Gulfstream) 2025 Form 10‑K and earnings commentary; Bombardier 2025 Annual Report and investor materials; Dassault Aviation 2025 Universal Registration Document; Aircraft Bluebook Winter 2025/26; Vref Q1‑2026 directional values; AMSTAT/JetNet market summaries H1‑2026; OEM/MRO published rate cards and service bulletins 2025–2026.

MyVIP Aviation is a charter broker and not an air carrier. Market figures reflect publicly available 2025–2026 sources and our transaction observations; verify with current appraisals before any offer.